Finansinių naujienų portalo „Econostream Media“ interviu su Gediminu Šimkumi, Lietuvos banko valdybos pirmininku. Interviu paskelbtas 2026 m. gegužės 29 d.
A 25bp June interest rate hike by the European Central Bank would be prudent and a second tightening move thereafter is more likely than not, according to ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus, who said that policymakers should gather additional evidence after June rather than feel compelled to tighten again immediately.
Q: Governor, is there anything one could easily imagine that would keep you from supporting a June hike?
A: I can think of unlikely scenarios — something like depressing news concerning the economy. Given all the unexpected developments we have seen over the last five years, I have a good imagination; many things happened that we thought could not happen. But I do not think we are likely to see better news on the inflation front that would remove the case for hiking in June. So, the scenarios that would lead me not to support a hike are unlikely.
Q: Do you think of a June hike as a one-off insurance hike, or would the bias then be toward a second hike unless the data improve?
A: I do not think of this as an insurance hike. The nature of supply-side shocks is such that we have to weigh inflationary pressures that could become entrenched against the effect on an economy that is weak. At the moment, we still do not have much hard data on inflation. But we have quite a lot of market-based and survey-based data, and these clearly point to a more inflationary environment. We need to react carefully, because the economy itself can act as a natural disinflationary force. But I still think a hike is needed. When you look at real shortterm interest rates, they are accommodative. A hike is needed to contain inflationary pressures and avoid second-round effects.
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